Aug 29
Now that the Vice Presidential candidates have been announced, I’d like to point out some interesting election trends that have occurred since the 1952 election, the last election where two new candidates were nominated by both parties.
| Year | Rep. P / VP | Dem. P / VP | Sitting P / VP nominated? | Winner | Winner’s prior office | Loser’s last office |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1952 | Eisenhower / Nixon | Stephenson / Sparkman | No | Eisenhower | None (military) | Senator |
| 1956 | Eisenhower / Nixon | Stephenson / Kefauver | Yes | Eisenhower | President | Senator |
| 1960 | Nixon / Lodge | Kennedy / Johnson | Yes | Kennedy | Senator | VP |
| 1964 | Goldwater / Miller | Johnson / Humphrey | Yes | Johnson | President | Senator |
| 1968 | Nixon / Agnew | Humphrey / Muskie | Yes | Nixon | VP | VP |
| 1972 | Nixon / Agnew | McGovern / Shriver | Yes | Nixon | President | Senator |
| 1976 | Ford / Dole | Carter / Mondale | Yes | Carter | Governor | President |
| 1980 | Reagan / Bush | Carter / Mondale | Yes | Reagan | Governor | President |
| 1984 | Reagan / Bush | Mondale / Ferraro | Yes | Reagan | President | Senator |
| 1988 | Bush / Quayle | Dukakis / Bentsen | Yes | Bush | VP | Governor |
| 1992 | Bush / Quayle | Clinton / Gore | Yes | Clinton | Governor | President |
| 1996 | Dole / Kemp | Clinton / Gore | Yes | Clinton | President | Senator |
| 2000 | Bush / Cheney | Gore / Lieberman | Yes | Bush | Governor | VP |
| 2004 | Bush / Cheney | Kerry / Edwards | Yes | Bush | President | Senator |
| 2008 | McCain / Palin | Obama / Biden | No | ? | Senator | Senator |
- Of the last 14 Republican tickets, 11 have included a candidate with the name Nixon or Bush. Nixon appears in 5 of 14, a Bush in 6 of 14.
- The last Senator elected to the Presidency was John Kennedy. Senators have lost 8 of the last 14 elections. A Senator will be elected in 2008 for the first time in 48 years.
- After 1952, a sitting President or Vice President has been at least one party’s candidate every election year, ending with 2008.
- Since 1952, 5 Presidents have been elected to two terms. Of those, 4 were Republicans. The last Democrat before Clinton was FDR.
- Election winners tend to be Presidents, Vice Presidents, or state Governors. Southern states seem to have an advantage: Carter (Georgia), Clinton (Arkansas), and Bush (Texas). Reagan (California) is the exception. Of new Presidents in office, Governors have been elected 4 of the last 5 times.
Did I miss anything ? Leave your analysis of the data in the comments section.
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August 29th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
This is why I find the Democrat’s critique of Palin’s lack of “foreign policy experience” making her unsuited to being a “heartbeat away…” a bit odd.
Four of the last five presidents were governors without such foreign policy experience. Including the last two Democrats to hold the office.
Some of the Democrats said that McCain would have been better picking other women from the GOP… And they named other senators and house reps.
One suspects that they are more bitter that she’s not part of the “insiders club”, and wonders if some GOP insiders are griping that he went outside the club.
August 29th, 2008 at 7:46 pm
August 30th, 2008 at 8:26 am
They’re just ticked off that McCain picked someone who:
1) Has actually had a real job in the private sector
2) Actually has executive experience - having risen from PTA to governor
3) Didn’t form their political career in the company of race baiters & unrepentant terrorists.
There will be a lot of PUMAs looking very closely at her. Obama is shaping up to be McGovern v 2.0. He energizes a small minority, but has a snobbery and lack of accomplishments that is not going to carry him through amongst those who don’t live on college campuses and actually work for a living.
August 30th, 2008 at 9:21 am
I know what a cougar is ;), but what’s a PUMA?
August 30th, 2008 at 10:01 am
PUMA stands for, “Party Unity, My Ass!”
It’s the term some of Hillary’s disgruntled supporters have called themselves.
August 30th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Your facts are monstly correct. You state that Two of three sitting Presidents defeated for re-election were Democrats.
Close but wrong it is 2 of 3 were Republican,
Ford 1976 + Bush 1992 Republicans, while
Carter 1980 Democrat.
Also Kennedy was the last person to go straight to Senator to President, but both Richard Nixon and Lyndon Johnson were at one time a US Senator.
August 30th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Oops, you’re correct, I had that counted incorrectly because of the way my table is constructed - I’ve only listed election winners, and Ford never won an election, so even though he was a sitting President who got defeated, he didn’t show up in the table.
I’m also aware that Nixon and Johnson were Senators at some point in their career. However, it wasn’t their work in the Senate that got either of them on the ballot for President.
I’ve debated as to whether to count Johnson as a sitting President who lost re-election. In 1968, he was not on the ballot because he didn’t seek the nomination. When a sitting President is so unpopular with his own party that he chooses not to run, even though he is Constitutionally able to serve another term and desires to do so, does that count as a defeat?
August 31st, 2008 at 12:36 am
Remember Johnson did run in the NH primary of 1968, he did win 49-42 but lost in actaul delegates to Eugene McCarthey. After that he decided not to run, which led to RFK running until he was tragicaly assassinated.