Aug 29

Interesting modern election trends

Pseudo-intellectual BS 8 Comments »

 

Now that the Vice Presidential candidates have been announced, I’d like to point out some interesting election trends that have occurred since the 1952 election, the last election where two new candidates were nominated by both parties.

Year Rep. P / VP Dem. P / VP Sitting P / VP nominated? Winner Winner’s prior office Loser’s last office
1952 Eisenhower / Nixon Stephenson / Sparkman No Eisenhower None (military) Senator
1956 Eisenhower / Nixon Stephenson / Kefauver Yes Eisenhower President Senator
1960 Nixon / Lodge Kennedy / Johnson Yes Kennedy Senator VP
1964 Goldwater / Miller Johnson / Humphrey Yes Johnson President Senator
1968 Nixon / Agnew Humphrey / Muskie Yes Nixon VP VP
1972 Nixon / Agnew McGovern / Shriver Yes Nixon President Senator
1976 Ford / Dole Carter / Mondale Yes Carter Governor President
1980 Reagan / Bush Carter / Mondale Yes Reagan Governor President
1984 Reagan / Bush Mondale / Ferraro Yes Reagan President Senator
1988 Bush / Quayle Dukakis / Bentsen Yes Bush VP Governor
1992 Bush / Quayle Clinton / Gore Yes Clinton Governor President
1996 Dole / Kemp Clinton / Gore Yes Clinton President Senator
2000 Bush / Cheney Gore / Lieberman Yes Bush Governor VP
2004 Bush / Cheney Kerry / Edwards Yes Bush President Senator
2008 McCain / Palin Obama / Biden No ? Senator Senator
  • Of the last 14 Republican tickets, 11 have included a candidate with the name Nixon or Bush. Nixon appears in 5 of 14, a Bush in 6 of 14.
     
  • The last Senator elected to the Presidency was John Kennedy. Senators have lost 8 of the last 14 elections. A Senator will be elected in 2008 for the first time in 48 years.
     
  • After 1952, a sitting President or Vice President has been at least one party’s candidate every election year, ending with 2008.
     
  • Since 1952, 5 Presidents have been elected to two terms. Of those, 4 were Republicans. The last Democrat before Clinton was FDR.
       
  • Election winners tend to be Presidents, Vice Presidents, or state Governors. Southern states seem to have an advantage: Carter (Georgia), Clinton (Arkansas), and Bush (Texas). Reagan (California) is the exception. Of new Presidents in office, Governors have been elected 4 of the last 5 times.

Did I miss anything ? Leave your analysis of the data in the comments section.

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