Predicting precipitation

Pseudo-intellectual BS Add comments

Dayton, Ohio, is about to get a winter storm. It happens this time most years. Moisture from the gulf meets a cold front from the north, and we get enough snow to paralyze the city for a day or two. So how much snow are we supposed to get this time around?

Well, it depends who you believe. Let’s check out the biggest local television weather department, WHIO:

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WHIO says 3-6″ along I-70 & Dayton. I suppose my house could be considered to be in that area.

What does the Weather Channel have to say? I find them to be wrong more than half the time, but their maps are usually pretty good so I keep going back to their site.

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1-3″ tonight, and less than an inch tomorrow, so a storm total of 1-4″. That’s somewhat different than what their precipitation forecast map says:

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I’ve marked Dayton with a red x for your convenience. We’re bordering the 3-6″ and 6-12″ region. Do the map people and the forecast people not coordinate?

Maybe Intellicast has their act together.

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1-3″ tonight, less than an inch tomorrow, same as the local weather people.

AccuWeather tends to be the worst. They’re usually way off, but let’s see what they have to say.

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Holy crap! 3-6″ tonight, 2-4″ tomorrow, 1-3″ tomorrow night. That’s a grand total of 6-13″! At least AccuWeather’s forecast matches up with the Weather Channel’s map.

Last, but certainly not least, is the trusty National Weather Service. I’ve found them to be the most accurate in the past, and they are also the most frequent updaters. Here’s what they say:

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1-3″ tonight, 5-9″ tomorrow for a grand total of 6-12″. That also matches up with the Weather Channel’s map.

To summarize, here’s a handy table. As someone who once linked to my site said, you can’t argue with little tables.

Source Storm total
WHIO 3-6″
Weather Channel 1-4″
Intellicast 1-4″
AccuWeather 6-13″
NWS 6-12″

My prediction: I’ll stick with NWS and say 6-12″.

4 Responses to “Predicting precipitation”

  1. chuck goolsbee Says:

    The REAL question is: Will it be enough to slack off and miss work?

    –chuck

  2. Aaron Adams Says:

    I’ve already been given permission to work from home tomorrow.

  3. Shawn Levasseur Says:

    Oh brother, I know that meteorology isn’t an exact science, but this looks like all the accuracy of contestants bidding on the Price is Right.

    “The one who comes closest to the actual amount of snowfall without going over wins a brand new snowplow…”

  4. Aaron Adams Says:

    Here is the storm total, as measured in my driveway this morning:

    4-5″ of snow, with an inch of ice on top, with another 4-5″ of snow on top of the ice. Total accumulation of 8-11″ of snow and ice. I suppose the award for accurate forecasting can go to either AccuWeather or the NWS.

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