Predicting precipitation

Pseudo-intellectual BS 4 Comments »

Dayton, Ohio, is about to get a winter storm. It happens this time most years. Moisture from the gulf meets a cold front from the north, and we get enough snow to paralyze the city for a day or two. So how much snow are we supposed to get this time around?

Well, it depends who you believe. Let’s check out the biggest local television weather department, WHIO:

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WHIO says 3-6″ along I-70 & Dayton. I suppose my house could be considered to be in that area.

What does the Weather Channel have to say? I find them to be wrong more than half the time, but their maps are usually pretty good so I keep going back to their site.

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1-3″ tonight, and less than an inch tomorrow, so a storm total of 1-4″. That’s somewhat different than what their precipitation forecast map says:

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I’ve marked Dayton with a red x for your convenience. We’re bordering the 3-6″ and 6-12″ region. Do the map people and the forecast people not coordinate?

Maybe Intellicast has their act together.

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1-3″ tonight, less than an inch tomorrow, same as the local weather people.

AccuWeather tends to be the worst. They’re usually way off, but let’s see what they have to say.

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Holy crap! 3-6″ tonight, 2-4″ tomorrow, 1-3″ tomorrow night. That’s a grand total of 6-13″! At least AccuWeather’s forecast matches up with the Weather Channel’s map.

Last, but certainly not least, is the trusty National Weather Service. I’ve found them to be the most accurate in the past, and they are also the most frequent updaters. Here’s what they say:

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1-3″ tonight, 5-9″ tomorrow for a grand total of 6-12″. That also matches up with the Weather Channel’s map.

To summarize, here’s a handy table. As someone who once linked to my site said, you can’t argue with little tables.

Source Storm total
WHIO 3-6″
Weather Channel 1-4″
Intellicast 1-4″
AccuWeather 6-13″
NWS 6-12″

My prediction: I’ll stick with NWS and say 6-12″.

Page loading preference proven pointless placebo by programmer

Mac OS X 2 Comments »

I read this very amusing post at Dave Hyatt’s Surfin Safari blog:

I just saw this article on Digg about how to “speed up Safari” by reducing the “page load delay” in preferences. In the comments are many testimonials like “Oh my gosh! Safari is so much faster now!” This just goes to prove how inaccurate people’s powers of perception are when it comes to measuring the performance of browsers. I say this because the preference in question is dead and does absolutely nothing in Safari 1.3 and Safari 2.0. :)

I just wanted to say…. BWAHAHAHAHA! Idiots. I rank the non-existent Safari page loading delay right up there with updating prebinding and, even worse, repairing permissions, as placebos that almost never do anything for your machine but idiots swear they make a huge difference. I think it also confirms something I and many of the people I respect think of the typical Digg reader.

To his credit, the developer of the page-loading delay removal app says:

If anybody who registered feels like they got ripped off because of this, I truly apologize. I had no idea whatsoever about this until just now. Please drop me an e-mail … and I’ll give you a full refund.

Give that man big points for integrity.

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