We’re apparently expecting some snow in Dayton tomorrow. The problem is, there’s no way to be sure when it’s coming or how much we’ll get. Every weather forecast I check is different. I’ve been through this a bunch of times in my 30 years. We’ve had predictions for clear nights where a few inches magically showed up on the ground the next morning, and predictions for the end of the world that turned out to be a stiff wind. So I’ve decided to keep a snow diary, a table of different weather forecast sources and their predictions, and a record of how those predictions change from hour-to-hour. It seems to be near impossible to predict if snow will even happen, much less any accumulation, and I want to compare the best of what meteorology has to offer with actual results after the storm. I’ll be updating this table every few hours or as the forecasts change (and they will.)
Wednesday December 7, 2005, 11:51 AM
| Weather service | Thursday | Tursday night |
| Weather Channel | Cloudy. Snow showers possible in the afternoon. Cold. High 29F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70%. Snow accumulations less than one inch. | Not specified |
| Intellicast | Cloudy with snow showers developing during the afternoon. Cold. High 29F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70%. Snow accumulating 1 to 2 inches. | Snow in the evening will become lighter overnight. Low 22F. ESE winds shifting to W at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 90%. Some snow accumulation possible. |
| Accuweather | Mostly cloudy and cold; a little afternoon snow with little or no accumulation. Winds from the ENE at 6 mph. | Very cold with snow, accumulating 2-4 inches. Winds from the W at 10 mph. |
| National Weather Service | Partly cloudy in the morning…then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 20s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. | Snow. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Lows 15 to 20. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph…becoming west after midnight. Chance of snow 100 percent. |
| WHIO TV | Thickening clouds with light snow developing by day’s end. | Accumulation is likely Thursday night. |
Wednesday, December 7, 2005, 3:29 PM
| Weather service | Thursday | Tursday night |
| Weather Channel | Cloudy. Snow showers possible in the afternoon. Cold. High near 30F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70%. About one inch of snow expected. | Periods of snow. Low 22F. ESE winds shifting to W at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 3 to 5 inches. |
| Intellicast | Cloudy. Snow showers possible in the afternoon. Cold. High 29F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70%. 1 to 2 inches of snow expected. | Snow in the evening will become lighter overnight. Low 22F. ESE winds shifting to W at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 90%. Some snow accumulation possible. |
| Accuweather | Mostly cloudy and cold; a little afternoon snow, accumulating a coating to an inch. Winds from the E at 7 mph. | Very cold with snow, accumulating a coating to an inch. Winds from the WSW at 10 mph. |
| National Weather Service | Partly cloudy in the morning…Snow developing in the afternoon. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. | Occasional snow. Total accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Lows 15 to 20. East winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph…Becoming west after midnight. Chance of snow 100 percent. |
| WHIO TV | Thickening clouds with light snow developing by day’s end. | Accumulation is likely Thursday night. |
Wednesday, December 7, 2005, 7:32 PM
| Weather service | Thursday | Tursday night |
| Weather Channel | Cloudy. Snow showers possible in the afternoon. Cold. High around 30F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70%. About one inch of snow expected. | Snow likely. Low 22F. ESE winds shifting to W at 10 to 15 mph. Snow accumulating 2 to 4 inches. |
| Intellicast | Cloudy with snow showers developing during the afternoon. Cold. High around 30F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. About one inch of snow expected. | Snow likely. Low 21F. SE winds shifting to W at 10 to 20 mph. Snow accumulating 2 to 4 inches. |
| Accuweather | Mostly cloudy and cold; a little afternoon snow, accumulating a coating to an inch. Winds from the E at 7 mph. | Very cold with snow, accumulating a coating to an inch. Winds from the WSW at 10 mph. |
| National Weather Service | Partly cloudy in the morning…Snow developing in the afternoon. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. | Occasional snow. Total accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Lows 15 to 20. East winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph…Becoming west after midnight. Chance of snow 100 percent. |
| WHIO TV | Thickening clouds with snow arriving in the afternoon. A light accumulation and slippery roads are expected by evening. Highs in the upper 20s. | Snow, steady and perhaps heavy at times in the evening, then lighter after midnight. Accumulations of 3″ - 5″ by dawn. Low in the low 20s. |
Thursday, December 8, 2005, 10:05 AM
| Weather service | Thursday | Tursday night |
| Weather Channel | Cloudy with snow showers developing late. Cold. High 32F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70%. Snow accumulating 1 to 2 inches. | Snow will taper off and end this evening but skies will remain cloudy late. Low around 20F. SE winds shifting to W at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 90%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected. |
| Intellicast | Cloudy with snow showers developing late. Cold. High near 30F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. | Snow this evening will taper off and give way to cloudy skies late. Low around 20F. SSE winds shifting to W at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 90%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches. |
| Accuweather | Cold; a morning flurry followed by a bit of snow, accumulating a coating to an inch this afternoon. Winds from the E at 8 mph. | Very cold with snow, accumulating 1-3 inches. Winds from the WSW at 13 mph. |
| National Weather Service | Partly cloudy this morning…Then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow this afternoon. Highs in the upper 20s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. | Occasional snow. Total accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Lows 15 to 20. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph…Becoming west after midnight. Chance of snow 100 percent. |
| WHIO TV | Thickening clouds with snow arriving in the afternoon. A light accumulation and slippery roads are expected by the evening commute. Highs in the upper 20s. | Snow, steady and perhaps heavy at times in the evening, then lighter after midnight. Accumulations of 3″ - 6″ by dawn. Lows in the mid teens. |
Thursday, December 8, 2005, 12:16 PM
1290 WHIO AM, Dayton’s biggest news radio station, has decided that they will interrupt programming every 15 minutes to provide updates about the weather situation. As of this entry, there is no snow and no new information about the storm that WHIO didn’t already present in the regular news break. Nevertheless, news or not, they will continue to interrupt programming to let us know nothing has changed, then they will repeat the weather news 5-10 minutes later during the regular news break.
Thursday, December 8, 2005, 2:17 PM
| Weather service | Thursday | Tursday night |
| Weather Channel | Expired. | Snow will taper off and end this evening but skies will remain cloudy late. Low 19F. SSE winds shifting to W at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 90%. Snow accumulating 2 to 4 inches. |
| Intellicast | Mostly cloudy with snow flurries and snow showers possible. Cold. High 29F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. | Snow this evening will taper off and give way to cloudy skies late. Low around 20F. SSE winds shifting to W at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 90%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches. |
| Accuweather | Overcast and cold with a little snow, accumulating a coating to an inch. Winds from the E at 9 mph. | Cold with snow tapering to flurries, accumulating 1-3 inches. Winds from the SW at 13 mph. |
| National Weather Service | Snow developing this afternoon. Snow accumulation around an inch. Highs in the upper 20s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. | Occasional snow. Total accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Lows 15 to 20. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph…Becoming west after midnight. Chance of snow 100 percent. |
| WHIO TV | Snow arriving and possibly mixing with or changing to sleet or freezing rain, especially south and east of Dayton. A light accumulation and slippery roads are expected by the evening commute. Highs in the lower 30s. | Snow, steady and perhaps heavy at times in the evening, then lighter after midnight. Accumulations of 3″ - 6″ by dawn. Lows in the mid teens. |
Thursday, December 8, 2005, 2:32 PM
WHIO begins announcing this evening’s school closings.
Thursday, December 8, 2005, 4:12 PM
The snow begins.
Thursday, December 8, 2005, 4:42 PM
I leave for home.
Thursday, December 8, 2005, 5:08 PM
WHIO announces that the National Weather Service has issued a heavy snow warning for Dayton from 6 PM tonight until 6 AM tomorrow. My car fishtails going 15 MPH on the highway just after that.
Thursday, December 8, 2005, 5:37 PM
I arrive home.
Thursday, December 8, 2005, 6:00 PM
Total accumulation in the 45305 zip code, where my house is located, and the zip code for which the preceding weather forecasts are made: 2.5 inches. The snow continues, very heavy.
Thursday, December 8, 2005, 2:17 PM
| Weather service | Thursday | Tursday night |
| Weather Channel | Expired. | Snow this evening will taper off and give way to cloudy skies late. Low 19F. SSE winds shifting to W at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90%. Snow accumulating 3 to 5 inches. |
| Intellicast | Snow likely. Cold. High 31F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. | Snow will taper off and end this evening but skies will remain cloudy late. Low near 20F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 90%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. |
| Accuweather | Expired. | Cold with snow tapering to flurries, accumulating 1-3 inches. Winds from the SW at 13 mph. |
| National Weather Service | Expired. | Snow. Possibly mixed with sleet and freezing rain this evening. Areas of blowing snow. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Lows near 20. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph…Becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 100 percent. |
| WHIO TV | Snow arriving and possibly mixing with or changing to sleet or freezing rain, especially south and east of Dayton. A light accumulation and slippery roads are expected by the evening commute. Highs in the lower 30s. | Snow, steady and perhaps heavy at times in the evening, then lighter after midnight. Accumulations of 3″ - 6″ by dawn. Lows in the mid teens. |
Thursday, December 8, 2005, 11:08 PM
It continues to snow. The heaviest part seems to be over. I will take a measurement in the morning when the storm is gone.
| Weather service | Thursday | Tursday night |
| Weather Channel | Expired. | Snow will taper off and end this evening but skies will remain cloudy late. Low 19F. Winds SW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches. |
| Intellicast | Expired. | Windy. Snow this evening will taper off late but it will remain cloudy. Low around 20F. Winds SSW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches. |
| Accuweather | Expired. | Cold with snow tapering to flurries, accumulating 3-6 inches. Winds from the SW at 12 mph. |
| National Weather Service | Expired. | Snow through early morning…Then scattered flurries. Total accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Lows 15 to 20. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow 100 percent. |
| WHIO TV | Expired. | Snow will become lighter after midnight. Accumulations of 5″ - 7″ by dawn. Lows in the mid teens. |
Friday, December 9, 2005, 11:18 AM
The official snow depth measurement in the front yard of the Adams compound is 5.5 inches. The snow ended around midnight. The main roads are clear, but the side streets in Bellbrook remain unplowed. The driveway at the Adams compound had to be cleared with the shovel and blower before I could move the sportycar. I’ll write some more later today.
Friday, December 9, 2005, 8:24 PM
The storm is long over. All of the snow remains on the ground and the main roads are clear. Despite a little bit of a delay this morning, life proceeded as normal.
The various weather services seemed unable to predict with any kind of confidence how much snow we would get and when we would get it. Each one changed it’s accumulation totals. There were some fluctuations in temperature and wind predictions as well. I didn’t write this to castigate weather reporters. Weather is an enormously complicated thing, and predicting snowfall totals for a commonplace winter storm seems to be quite a challenge. It makes me wonder how wide-scale climate prediction can be accurate given that day-to-day weather is so tricky.
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