Aaron Adams’s Blowhard Blog

Prior to this year’s Macworld. I was very sure that the rumors of a headless Mac were untrue simply because the product idea made so little sense. Now that the Mac mini is a reality, I still think it’s a product that doesn’t make much sense in a number of ways. The Mac mini may be priced at $499 at the outset, but turning it into a usable computer by attaching a display, keyboard, and mouse turns out, in many situations, to add logistical complications and additional expense to these boxes right out of the gate. (Also, most users’ desire for additional RAM will make the Mac mini initially more expensive than the $499 price tag.) The idea of an inexpensive headless Mac isn’t the panacea some fantasize it to be Ñ in fact, it may be the opposite. The Mac mini will be a mediocre seller at best and could end up being Apple’s biggest mistake since the Cube.

Why do I have such a bleak outlook on the Mac mini? The answer to that question is rather involved and includes a number of elements such as Apple marketing, other Apple products, and Windows users’ expectations.

Apple seems to be positioning the Mac mini as a machine to draw switchers over the to Mac. Although I don’t believe the Mac mini is intended to directly compete with similarly priced machines from Dell and Gateway, for example, it will be compared to those boxes anyway, and in such a comparison, the Mac mini loses. Cheap PCs come with more stuff, and more flexible stuff, for the same dollars. Rather than serving as a direct competitor to the low-end PC market, Apple intends the Mac mini to be an inexpensive entry point into the Mac world as compared to other Macs, which also proves to be a fallacy upon close examination. They’re counting on the iPod halo effect, which I believe is real, to draw people into Apple retailers where they will see a value-priced Mac and, maybe as part of an impulse buy, purchase one while thinking fondly of the iPod they love so much.

Attentive and interested readers may have spotted what seems to be a contradiction in my position: How can I state that switchers are not interested in an inexpensive Mac, and yet claim that the iPod halo effect is real? The first step toward resolving this contradiction is to define the halo effect. In my mind, the iPod halo effect occurs when a user of another platform, most often Windows, purchases one of those iPods they’ve heard so much about and, inspired by the quality of their interaction with the iPod and iTunes, makes a conscious decision to check out what else Apple offers. The affected examine Apple’s computer choices, run some numbers, and purchase the machine that best fits their needs and budget. The crux of my assertion is that when the numbers are added up, the Mac mini doesn’t do anything more to convince potential switchers to adopt the Mac than an eMac or iBook already does. It’s a product that, in the end, makes little or no difference to potential switchers with the ability to add numbers.

There will be purchasers for the Mac mini. Those purchasers will be Mac owners who want a second machine, people or institutions with special needs or circumstances, and schools that already use Macs. For instance, my friend Todd, a current 12-inch PowerBook owner (and abuser), has already stated that he would like to have a Mac mini as a small file server he can plug his myriad of firewire disks into, accessible over VPN when needed. YML staffer Steve Melnicki has suggested using Mac minis for network monitoring stations in server closets. But for those switching from Windows, the Mac mini does not present a compelling reason to replace their current Windows machine, or a dead one.

I’ve contended since my appearance in Apple’s Switch campaign that the real way for Apple to attract switchers is to tell everyone what’s good about the Mac, what’s different and better about it, why it serves users better than the Windows boxes so many people currently own. I had hoped the Switch campaign in 2002 was the beginning of such an effort, but Apple seems to have abandoned the whole idea after 6 months. Now, as 2005 begins, Apple more than ever needs a masive, sustained marketing effort explaining the hows and whys of life with a Mac. Apple needs to make a compelling case for switching based on the machine’s interaction with the user (the same catalyst at play in the iPod halo effect) and the platform’s advantages over other platforms, not based on price or abstract ideas like dancing silhouettes or white-backgrounded pictures with product titles and catch phrases in magazines.

Over the next several days or weeks, I plan to post a number of case studies and thought experiments based on the real-life situations of people I know, past experiences I’ve had revised for the Mac mini, and theoretical situations, in all of which the Mac mini seems to be a good solution. In most of those situations, the Mac mini will lose its appeal upon close examination and other Apple products, especially the eMac and iBook, will be equally good solutions, if not better.

Tomorrow is travel day for me, so there will be no updates. However, starting Sunday, I’ll start posting case studies. Check back!